Is Tiger Back?

Tiger Woods yesterday got a big monkey off his back with his 1st 'proper' tournament win since September 2009. His win in the Arnold Palmer Invitational has been a long time coming, especially as he has had two golden chances earlier this season to claim victories in Abu Dhabi & at Pebble Beach.

I say 'proper' win as Tiger won his own tournament, the 2011 Chevron Challenge - however this is a limited field event and not sanctioned by an official tour.

The win is even more remarkable as only a few weeks ago Tiger pulled out of the WGC Cadillac event in Florida, seemingly with a recurrance of his knee injury. There were fears then of his ability to compete, and even take part in any tournament prior to the Masters. But it seems his injury was not as bad as 1st feared and Tiger was back this week in full fitness.

So does this mean Tiger is back? Will he dominate once again, as he did for over a decade previously. Personally I'm not so sure. While the Bay Hill tournament is a prestigious event, none of the top 6 ranked players were there - electing to take some time off before the Masters in a couple of weeks (Donald, McIlroy, Westwood, Kaymer, Stricker, Schwartzel). Neither were the two other current Major champs from outside the top 6, Clarke and Bradley.

There is no doubt, Tiger put 4 decent rounds together - which is something he has failed to do of late and the win will give him confidence ahead of the Masters - but I think it is unlikely we will ever see Tiger dominate like he did previously.

Reasons;
1. His Fitness. Tiger will suffer niggling injuries and his body is limited in what it can now achieve. It seems inevitable he will miss 3 or 4 events each season that he would have otherwise have played in.
2. His Game. Tiger still has problems off the tee, but his putting is just not as good as it was. Previously a 6 or 7 footer was a gimmie for Tiger (especially for a Par save) but now his stats will be in the mix with the rest of the top players.
3. His Presence. (or lack thereof). While Tiger would get a couple of shots (or more) on any of the other leaders in the weekend of a tournament through intimidation, there is just not that invincibility factor any more. Guys will be more comfortable playing with him and competing against him. Especially the 4 players who have held the No 1 spot since Tiger vacated it (Westwood, Kaymer, Donald & McIlroy) and the 11 players who have become 1st time major winners since Tiger's last major - A dramatic US Open when he managed to win an 18 hole play-off against Rocco Mediate, despite being in continuous pain due to the knee injury that would then keep him out for almost a year (and arguably from which he has never fully recovered).

That said... is Tiger a factor at the Masters? Of course. Even last season, a fragile Woods who had been deposessed of his World Number 1 status made a dramatic Sunday charge to get in the mix and post a score. But ultimately he had been too far behind to really get involved for the Green Jacket.

Tiger also loves Augusta. He has won 4 Green Jackets (albeit not one since 2005) and as the players come back to the same course every year - there is a clear advantage to experienced guys who have played many more rounds than younger guys around them in the rankings.

What struck me watching Tiger this week, was generally how in control he was. He had a decent lead in the weekend and he plotted his way around the course, getting the ball in play and hitting greens. Apart from one errant tee shot on the Saturday, it was very reminiscnet of his last Open victory at Hoylake in 2006 - when Tiger seemed to be playing a different course.

There is no doubt on the Sunday this week that Graeme McDowell had a chance to put some pressure on Tiger and make him be more aggressive, but an early double bogey from G-Mac really took the wind out of his sails and despite passing up a few more chances, Tiger always had a couple of shots cushion.

Certainly this is how Tiger usually wins. Get a few shots of a lead on the Friday or Saturday and stay there on the Sunday when guys around him are forced to take risks and try and make things happen. Tiger rarely wins from behind - perhaps because he doesn't play well when taking risks.

So is Tiger Back? Not completely, but certainly he is back enough to make things interesting.