Tuesday 15 February 2011

So where now for Scottish Rugby... short term.

Well after a promising start to the 6 Nations with 3 tries, ultimately in vain, in the Stade de France - it was business as usual as we surrendered dreadfully to a Welsh side without a win in 9 internationals.

No tries scored and only two Dan Parks penalties meant there was precious little to cheer about for any Scots who had made their way to Murrayfield on Saturday evening.

From Andy Robinson naming an unchanged side following an exciting performance in Paris (albeit Richie Gray was withdrawn on Saturday due to illness) there will now be calls for wholesale changes as we return to Murrayfield in two weeks hence for the visit of always competitive Ireland.

We can all bemoan the lack of vision, funding, coaches, pro-teams etc that plague the Scottish game in comparison to other Nations of similar size but the short term problem is to pick a team in two weeks and get a group of players who can go to the World Cup and get out of a tricky group containing England and Argentina.

So what will Robinson do on the 27th? I don't imagine he will make massive, sweeping changes with new caps and 10 alterations to the current line-up.

In the pack, Richie Gray will come back into the 2nd row, with Hines dropping to the bench. Johnnie Beattie has surely now proven his fitness and will hopefully replace Richie Vernon at No. 8. This will reunite the 3 Killer Bees who were such a success in Scotland's recent run of good results. Beattie is the most genuine try threat of the Killer Bee's and can have a big impact on the game, along with the return of Gray.

Moray Low will replace Euan Murray at prop for this game on the Sabbath, although I think it is fair to say Murray's place would otherwise have been in doubt and Low is surely worthy of his place on merit. Expect Ross Ford and Alan Jacobson will retain their places.

I personally can't envisage any other 8 forwards starting, although Beattie's fitness may be the only question mark over that.

While the forwards pretty much pick themselves, barring injuries, the same cannot be said for our tortured back division.

So what of the much maligned Dan Parks? Reborn last season, he won his place from Godman and didn't really look back for the whole of 2010. However he has been getting mixed reports following his move to Cardiff and hasn't controlled games this year the way he did last term. However, I think he will retain his place. His understudy at Glasgow, Ruaridh Jackson, has finally got plenty game time this year with Glasgow but hasn't yet started for Scotland.

On Saturday, Robinson didn't bring him on despite Parks having one of his least effective games. So why is he in the squad when perhaps Robinson doesn't feel confident to give him game time?

Personally, I don't think Jackson has made the progress that a lot of Scottish Rugby fans had hoped. His career has been besieged with injuries and Glasgow's results this season have not shown us that Jackson has filled Parks boots at Firhill. Arguably his younger Glasgow team mate, Duncan Weir, is making better progress and will overtake him with more matches under his belt.

I think simply Jackson is in the squad because there is no one else available as cover at 10. So that being the case, Parks will retain his place despite two quiet games. However all is not lost, Parks has come back from almost two years without an International start to win countless MoM awards last season for Scotland and Glasgow. He is a confidence player, but a confident Dan Parks is probably the best kicking fly-half in the world, and Scotland can play to his strengths and win field position and games.

So the other backs? Arguably Lawson has had his chance at scrum half and Mike Blair has just edged him when he has come on in the previous two matches. Therefore I think Blair will start vs Ireland.

Wing? Well Nikki Walker has done very little in his two starts and I can't imagine he will retain his place. Perhaps Danielli will be brought in? Max Evans has offered some hope, but his best position is undoubtedly at Centre and I think he should be moved here. If Rory Lamont is fit, he would be an adequate replacement on the wing.

IMO, the centres pick themselves and the pace of Joe Ansbro and Max Evans has potential to be a world class centre pairing.

Sean Lamont has no doubt secured his position at full back with two good showings from the bench. He was the only player on Saturday to beat a man and scored a great try in Paris.

So that's the team...

1. Jacobson
2. Ford
3. Low
4. Gray
5. Kellock
6. Brown
7. Barclay
8. Beattie
9. Blair
10. Parks
11. R. Lamont
12. Evans
13. Ansbro
14. Danielli
15. S. Lamont


And for the World Cup? Well Euan Murray may regain some form and fitness to challenge Low at Prop. 4 to 8 pick themselves if everyone is fit in my view, and Ford and Jacobson will continue in the front row.

I think Parks plays at 10, given our lack of options and we just need to hope he finds some form. Chris Cusiter is weeks away from playing again for Glasgow and I feel will be our 1st choice Scrum Half when fully fit.

I'd like to see Robinson persevering with Ansbro and Evans in the centre and not resist the temptation to play Evans on the wing. However when Graeme Morrison is fit again, Robinson may feel Evans is better used on the wing in order to try and get as many of our best players on the field.

Sean Lamont has looked in good form in the past two weeks, but he has lost his place before and brother Rory has been out of the squad since a bad injury against Wales last year. Southwell too seemed to have nailed down his Full Back place and seemingly finished Chris Paterson's international career, but he now has a bad facial injury and his place is up for grabs.

Likewise, places on the wings are available for anyone who can match scoring threat with sound defence. Thom Evans has been a big loss for us, and it is worrying that coming up to the world cup we really don't have these places nailed down, even in the hypothetical situation of everyone being fit.

Only Andy Robinson knows... I hope.